Greggs, the UK high-street bakery famous for its sausage rolls, now sells over 1 million of them every single day. That figure has caught investor attention and sparked comparisons to global giants like Starbucks.
Rapid Growth, But Signs of a Slowdown
In 2024, Greggs opened 145 net new stores and aims to add another 140 to 150 in 2025, focusing on retail parks, supermarkets and transport hubs.
Despite hitting £1.03 billion in sales in the first half of 2025 (a 7 percent year-on-year increase), profits fell 14 percent to £63.5 million. The drop was largely due to reduced footfall during June’s heatwave, when fewer people bought hot bakes and drinks.
Have We Hit “Peak Greggs”?
Some analysts suggest Greggs may be nearing market saturation. The company’s rapid expansion, growing menu complexity and tighter margins have raised concerns. With so many stores opening close together, some fear they could start cannibalising each other’s sales.
Others argue that instead of opening more shops, Greggs should invest in refurbishing older sites and simplifying the menu to stay focused.
The CEO Disagrees
CEO Roisin Currie disagrees with the “peak Greggs” narrative. She says the brand still has huge room to grow, with underrepresented areas across the UK and a long-term ambition to grow from the current 2,500 shops to 3,000 and beyond.
Currie also highlights the success of healthier menu items, which now make up 30 percent of sales, and points to innovations like smaller shop formats and frozen “bake at home” products coming to Tesco this September.
What’s Next?
There’s no denying that Greggs has been a runaway success story. From breakfast deals to on-the-go value and a powerful digital push through Uber Eats, Just Eat and its app, the brand has transformed from a humble bakery into a national heavyweight.
Yes, there’s a slowdown, and yes, inflation and changing customer habits are at play. But the fundamentals are still solid, with steady like-for-like growth expected at 3 to 4 percent annually.
